The views of the nutty Russian professor, Igor Panarin, are getting re-runs in the US press (WSJ) for some reason that I can't fathom: we covered them a month or two ago (IZO, earlier). His contention that, for example, Texas will secede to Mexico due to the influx of Hispanic immigrants is plainly ridiculous: the immigrants are coming to Texas and surrounding states in order to escape from Mexico, surely. The WSJ article, although it states clearly that the Panarin US break-up theory appeals to the "Russian state media", may give the impression that it has broad intellectual currency in Russia: it doesn't. Prof Panarin's views do however veil very real anxieties about Russia itself. Vladimir Sorokin's Day of the Oprichnik, the 2006 novel which many fear is a blueprint for the Russian future, contains the following dialogue between "traitors":
Chairman of the Duma:
So, we'll seize power. But what shall we do with Russia, Sergei Ivanovich?
Minister:
Chop it up and sell it off.
Chairman:
To whom?
Minister:
The East to the Japanese, Siberia to the Chinese, Krasnodar Terrirtory to the Ukrainians, Altai to the Kazakhs, Pskov region to the Estonians, Novgorod region to the Belorussians. And the middle bit we'll keep for ourselves.
Now, the transformation of Russia won't happen by means of "chop it up and sell it off", but may well occur organically. An acquaintance of mine who visited Irkutsk recently tells me that the city is filling up with Chinese traders and businessmen, many of whom are marrying the local Russian girls. Apparently they don't drink and work hard and thus make, in some ways at least, ideal husbands. One can imagine that the Chinese one-child policy, which has led to a preponderance of boy children, could increase this kind of sexual expansionism. Sorokin's novel, set about 2030 I think, posits a huge Chinese presence in Russia; and the now-fashionable Eurasian political movement led by Alexander Dugin is, in a sense, an acknowledgement of such a future.